Europe’s New Migration Pact Could Reshape Türkiye’s Role

As the EU’s new migration framework enters into force, Türkiye may gain new leverage with Brussels while facing pressure to shoulder more of Europe’s migration burden.

By Zeynep Doruk

15 July 20263 min readEurope

European Commission Audiovisual ServiceCredit: European Commission Audiovisual ServiceSource: https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/media/photo/P-062701Photo date: 2023-12-20Licence: P-062701/00-20

The EU’s Pact on Migration and Asylum entered into application in June 2026, creating a more unified framework for screening, asylum procedures and responsibility-sharing across the bloc. Türkiye remains outside that system, but its position on the Eastern Mediterranean route means the Pact could still deepen a familiar imbalance: greater strategic importance for Türkiye without necessarily greater influence over the policies that affect it.

1. Türkiye could become more important to the EU

The Pact places greater emphasis on cooperation with third countries, particularly on border management, returns, readmission, anti-smuggling measures and legal migration. Türkiye already plays a central role in many of these areas, which could increase its strategic value to Brussels as the new framework is implemented.

2. Greater importance does not mean greater influence

Türkiye remains outside the EU’s internal decision-making and solidarity mechanisms, even though decisions taken under the Pact may have direct consequences along the Eastern Mediterranean route. The result is an old problem in a new form. Türkiye may be expected to take on more responsibility, while still having little say over the rules that shape that cooperation.

3. The relationship could become even more transactional

Closer cooperation could bring financial support, technical assistance and new legal mobility opportunities. But it also carries the risk of narrowing EU–Türkiye relations further around border control, returns and migration management, while broader political questions remain unresolved. If the relationship is to become more sustainable, it cannot revolve only around returns and border control. Refugee protection, legal mobility and a fairer division of responsibility also need to be part of the bargain.

KEY DATES

18 March 2016 — The EU and Türkiye agree on a framework to reduce irregular migration and strengthen return and refugee-support cooperation.
14 May 2024 — The Council of the EU formally adopts the Pact on Migration and Asylum.
29 January 2026 — The Commission sets out a new European Asylum and Migration Management Strategy, emphasizing migration diplomacy, returns and legal mobility.
12 June 2026 — The Pact’s new rules enter into application across the EU.